Eurohockey Watch forecasts European hockey. Every player's history is translated into one comparable power projection, and those power projections drive the forecasts: who wins, who rises, and who's bound for the NHL. Starting with Liiga.
Eurohockey Watch forecasts European hockey. Every player's history is translated into one comparable power projection, and those power projections drive the forecasts: who wins, who rises, and who's bound for the NHL. Starting with Liiga.
2026–2027
Projected points, playoff odds, championship odds, and relegation odds, averaged across 20,000 simulated replays of the 2026/2027 Liiga regular season. Projected PTS is each team's average regular-season points total across every simulated replay. Playoffs % is how often they finish in the top 12 and qualify for the postseason. Cup % is how often they go all the way and win the championship (the full regular season and playoff bracket, chained together and replayed as one). Relegation % is how often they finish last 3 and go down to the B League.
| # | Team | Projected PTS | Playoffs % | Cup % | Relegation % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tappara | 121.7 | 99.9% | 30.9% | <0.1% |
| 2 |  JYP | 118.4 | 99.8% | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| 3 |  Lukko | 111.2 | 98.6% | 9.1% | 0.2% |
| 4 |  KooKoo | 110.6 | 98.2% | 10.1% | 0.4% |
| 5 |  Ilves | 109.9 | 98.0% | 11.0% | 0.4% |
| 6 |  KalPa | 108.2 | 97.3% | 7.3% | 0.5% |
| 7 |  Kiekko-Espoo | 99.5 | 88.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| 8 |  Jokerit | 97.5 | 85.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| 9 |  SaiPa | 95.7 | 81.8% | 1.4% | 5.6% |
| 10 |  Kärpät | 95.7 | 81.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% |
| 11 |  Ässät | 92.8 | 74.7% | 0.9% | 8.5% |
| 12 |  HIFK | 89.6 | 65.6% | 1.2% | 13.7% |
| 13 |  Pelicans | 85.5 | 51.2% | 0.5% | 22.3% |
| 14 |  TPS | 79.8 | 32.0% | <0.1% | 39.3% |
| 15 |  HPK | 79.8 | 32.0% | <0.1% | 39.4% |
| 16 |  Sport | 69.5 | 9.3% | <0.1% | 74.5% |
| 17 |  Jukurit | 66.4 | 5.4% | <0.1% | 82.4% |
Top 12 seeded from the simulated table. Seeds 5–12 open with a best-of-five 1st Round; seeds 1–4 bye to the best-of-seven Quarterfinals. Semifinals and the Final re-seed the survivors, best remaining vs. worst, the real Liiga format. Every game's winner is drawn from the two teams' power projections, the same number behind the regular-season standings; the whole bracket is replayed 20,000 times, and what's shown is the single most common path to champion.
Ilves3-2HIFKKalPa3-2ÄssätKiekko-Espoo3-2KärpätJokerit3-2SaiPaTappara4-1IlvesJYP4-3KalPaLukko4-3Kiekko-EspooKooKoo4-3JokeritTappara4-1KooKooJYP4-1Lukko
Tappara4-3JYPBronze medal game: Lukko over KooKoo (most likely outcome; both semifinal losers play a single neutral-site game)